NEW YORK, October 27, 2026 – Just eight days before American voters go to the polls in the midterm elections, the phone lines between Ottawa and Washington have gotten a lot busier. Talks that seemed stuck for weeks are now advancing—though there is still no deal on the table from either side yet.
According to news quoting several government and industry sources familiar with the talks, the White House has been far more interested in striking a deal with Canada in the last week than in “all the weeks prior.” Sources noted President Donald Trump’s political weaknesses heading into the November 3 midterms as one explanation for why the administration was keen to reach a deal.
It’s not coincidental timing. With the trade war overshadowing the closing days of the U.S. election season, any breakthrough could make a difference politically. But Canadian officials are hesitant to read too much into the flurry of calls. “We are not on the verge of an agreement just yet,” one source familiar with the discussions said.
What is moving
The clearest indicator of movement is auto tariffs. In the report, there was some hope of movement on this front in comparison with where the situation stood when negotiations fell apart in August. Two sources cited a weekend of “all-consuming” talks; another stated that something is moving forward.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett struck a more optimistic note. “The negotiations have picked up,” he said. “They’re gathering steam.” He suggested the two countries were close to an agreement, while also blaming an Alberta referendum vote and Canadian elections for earlier delays in the process.
The Canadian position is that LeBlanc’s Trade Minister’s office has confirmed that Ottawa “remains in constructive dialogue” with Washington on various fronts. Reportedly, LeBlanc did not leave Ottawa during the weekend due to increased telephone communication with Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Commerce Secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative.
Carney’s caution
Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, was not in a jubilant mood. When asked to comment on the developments on Monday, he said there was a “slight, slight intensification” in talks, but added that there had been no progress as the US was coming towards Canada’s stance.
“To the extent any progress has been made, it’s because the U.S. is coming closer to our position,” Carney said.
It’s easy to understand his skepticism. Canada turned down the terms offered by Washington in August after stating that the offer violated their “red lines.” Following this, Trump slapped 50 per cent tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian exports, which led to retaliation. On Friday, the White House stated that it would remove some of these tariffs and impose new ones on many other products.
And when Carney was asked whether he could be certain that Trump would uphold the new deal, his response was rather straightforward: “I don’t know that.”
Markets are watching
Investor sentiment appears positive. The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX Composite Index closed over 150 points higher on Monday on the back of rising financial stocks amid an upward move in U.S. markets.
And for good reason. For industrial producers, auto makers, steel manufacturers, and forestry product exporters, the difference between a tariff-filled dynamic and a stable trade environment is very tangible and impacts production and employment. According to Dennis Darby, President and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, “a sustainable, predictable deal is required as negotiations have gathered pace.”
A deal before Election Day?
Here’s the puzzle: Sources on both sides say that the talks have become more frequent and more intense, but no formal negotiations have taken place yet. The country’s top trade negotiator, Janice Charette, made it clear last week: “Pens are down, and the doors are open.” Talks are taking place at various levels, she noted, but not at the negotiating table.
Is an agreement imminent? Perhaps. Or perhaps not. Trump said in a Michigan campaign rally that Canada was “willing to give us anything at this moment” and that an agreement will be “pretty soon,” although he also noted that it could take months.
The bottom line is this: the two governments are talking again, the political clock is ticking, and both sides have their reasons to score a headline. Whether it leads to an agreement or just another round of tariff threats remains to be seen.
