NEW YORK, October 12, 2026 – While some houses will have to deal with high costs for the winter heating period, the predictions are quite different depending on the fuel type. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook, households heating mostly with oil will have to pay about 21% more than during the previous winter period, whereas the households using natural gas or propane will pay less. Those using electricity for heating purposes will pay slightly more.
The forecast takes into account the months from November to March. The forecasts are made on the national level and do not guarantee any costs for an individual household.
Heating oil faces the sharpest increase
The average household that relies on heating oil for home heating will pay $2,115 during the upcoming winter season, which marks a 21% increase over last year, the EIA projects. The heating oil price is expected to average $5.26 per gallon – 34% more than last year – owing partly to less severe temperatures in the Northeast.
The rise is attributed to limited supplies of distillate fuel oil globally, which includes both diesel and heating oil. It is mainly felt in the Northeast region, where approximately 3.4 million households heat their homes with oil, accounting for about 82% of all US households (or 4.1 million in total) that use heating oil.
According to another report compiled by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, households using heating oil will need to pay $2,627 during this winter period, which represents a 50% increase compared to last year. This number is not the same as $2,115 provided by the EIA, since the figures are derived from separate estimates.
Other fuels bring a mixed picture
According to the EIA, natural gas households will pay on average $640, a 9% drop, while propane households will pay $1,246, a reduction of 3%. The forecast for electricity-heated households is $1,196, an increase of 4%. These numbers may not reflect the actual prices in each state, and cold weather can cause changes in household consumption.
According to the news, the cited outlook predicts average U.S. household heating costs from mid-November to mid-March at $1,030. This number reflects an estimate based on various fuels used by the household, hiding the increased cost for oil-heating households.
Planning and assistance
Households can investigate the cost of fuel in their area and explore methods of reducing heat loss in advance of the cold snap. Steps to take include sealing air leaks and keeping up maintenance on home heating units, among other tips, as recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Those having difficulties paying for their heating costs can see whether they qualify for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. Qualifications and application processes vary according to each state; the USAGov website provides information from households’ state or territory energy assistance offices.
Not everyone will face the same weather this winter. It all comes down to the fuel used to heat the house, in addition to the weather outside.
