NEW YORK, NY, NOVEMBER 2, 2026 — Weather experts are currently monitoring the development of a strong El Niño pattern, which may be one of the most significant El Niño events on record. In recent months, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific have risen substantially; consequently, scientists have repeatedly adjusted their seasonal predictions upward. Although scientists warn that the intensity of an El Niño does not automatically result in particular climatic conditions, they also report that confidence in a very powerful El Niño remains high.
Just How Strong Could This Get
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center has raised the probability of a very strong El Niño to over 90 percent for the upcoming fall and winter. As reported by NOAA in its monthly forecast update, the October-December period has about a 69 percent chance of surpassing the intensity of each El Niño event that occurred from 1950 to present day. This means that if it does happen, it will be one of the most powerful El Niños on record.
The AccuWeather forecasters are predicting that this El Nino could potentially be one of the largest (or perhaps even the largest) on record. Researchers predict that the event will continue to at least early 2016, and then slowly dissipate.
What Strong El Niño Winters Typically Bring
The historical association of large El Nino events with greater precipitation throughout California and the Southern U.S., as well as an increased strength and frequency of the jet stream. Forecasters predict that there will be a greater probability of above normal precipitation on both coastlines during the upcoming winter season, as well as an increased likelihood of more frequent “nor’easters” impacting the northeastern part of the country. In addition, the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain Region are expected to receive above normal snowfall due to the effects of El Niño.
Forecasters are projecting that the majority of the nation will experience a warmer-than-normal winter, but there are areas where temperatures will remain below average. The regions that are projected to remain colder-than-normal include central New England, the Appalachian Mountains and the Ohio River Valley, as well as portions of Hawaii. This geographical variability demonstrates why meteorologists hesitate to characterize each El Niño winter as a direct duplication of previous El Niño events.
Why Scientists Urge Caution
Despite the extreme forecast language used by NOAA, NOAA has stated many times that although a stronger El Niño creates a higher probability for certain types of weather, El Niño simply increases the probability of these types of weather and does not guarantee that they will occur. NOAA’s climate scientists have noted that El Niño creates probabilities; however, it does not create the forecast itself. For example, two equally strong El Niño events may create completely different weather patterns in the same geographic area due to other atmospheric conditions being present during each event.
In addition to assessing the impact of the El Niño on existing climate patterns, researchers will be looking at how it relates to other ongoing climate trends. Many researchers are concerned that if the El Niño pattern continues at its present rate, the year 2027 could have record-breaking global average temperatures. This possible relationship between the strength of the El Niño pattern and record temperature records is adding urgency to continued monitoring efforts.
What Happens Next
As of today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center releases its monthly update to El Niño assessments on the second Thursday of each month. Forecasters are closely monitoring conditions to determine when the event may have reached its peak. Additionally, NOAA’s official winter forecast, which is generally released in mid-November, will provide the most complete regional breakdown prior to the coldest months of the year. Researchers state that within the next few weeks, there should be much more certainty as to whether or not this particular El Niño will rank as one of the strongest in history.
In addition, scientists state that while accuracy of predictions is important, preparation is more important than accuracy of predictions for locations with historical sensitivity to El Nino. Flood prone area emergency managers are currently assessing infrastructure in advance of what is expected to be a highly active hurricane season. Scientists do not believe that the exact measurement of the El Nino strength will ultimately matter; rather they believe that the upcoming winter will provide a good example of how well today’s forecasting models can predict a large-scale event such as El Nino.
